Date: Thursday, February 25 2010
Prediction: for Firday Feb 26, 2010.

So, we are out of snow days, and this storm has been doing a lot of weird things. Anyone get a chance to see the huge snowflakes earlier this morning? Let me stress HUGE!!!

And then here in Saugerties, it ends up raining. And raining hard I might add. The Saugerties Weather man (my teacher) said this on his post, I am going to repeat it.

We are in a strange pattern with this warm wedge over top of us, though the further south you go, the more it's snowing. So those of you in Tilson are seeing more snow than rain, and those of you in the Ruby area are seeing more rain than snow.

You look north to Albany, and it's warmer there than it is here. New York City, it's colder and snowing. I don't get it either.

We are stuck in this warm pocket.

Prediction

Delay --- 30%
Closing --- 40%

Four days in a row doing this is insane in it's own right. And we are losing vacation days now if we take any more snow days.

Date: Wednesday, February 24 2010
Prediction: for Thursday Feb 25, 2010.

Okay... take a breath snow day guy. Three in a row is a little crazy. Last time I remember having this many snow days off in a row was back in 1993, and I was in school. We went to school on Monday of the week, and then enjoyed a mid winter break because we had Tuesday - Friday off and then a 2 hour delay that Monday. Who knows, it's possible.

Anyway, snow came to a stop this morning early, and it was mostly rain here in Saugerties during the day. I ended up going north up into Albany today to help a local food pantry pick up it's shipment of food, and they had significantly more snow up there. It was also snowing up there when we got there.

Tonight, snow should start redeveloping across the region as the next coastal storm starts moving in here. Again it is a question of what the temperature is going to be. Temperatures should fall below freezing which will cause snow to develop and refreeze on the roadways. In the morning, temperatures should rise back up into the mid and upper 30s causing the snow to change into rain again.

Thursday night, it should change back into Snow again. Yeah, I'm already getting a jump on Friday. I mean I might as well right?

Prediction

Delay --- 40%
Closing --- 60%

I might not get a chance to update tonight since I am a bit busy this evening.

Date: Tuesday, February 23 2010
Prediction: for Wednesday Feb 24, 2010.

I will say this right now. Today (Tuesday) was a wasted snow day. I know the many students that read this will disagree with me, but we are going to need the snow day we had wasted. I have a good feeling about it.

If you look back in history, the big snow storms that hit our area always happen in March. I am at a loss as to why they called a snow day today, because by 9am the roads were wet, and it was raining. If this week is a precursor to what we can expect throughout March, we are going to wish that we had that snow day back.

Back on Track

National Weather Service placed us under a winter storm warning until Wednesday 7:00PM. If the storm hasn't changed over yet, it will be changing over to all snow.

Tonight expect snow fall from 2 - 4 inches, and then tomorrow another 2 - 4 inches. Tomorrow the temperatures are going to creep up just above freezing, which means that during the day we could change over into a rain, sleet, snow mixture.

If I go on what happened today with school, I am going to say this.

Prediction:

Delay --- 20% chance of a delay
Closing --- 90% chance

Updated at 10:30 PM

Date: Monday, February 22 2010
Prediction: for Tuesday Feb 23, 2010.

Wow, is this week going to be action pack. It's all starting now as well. The snow seems to be flying south of Kingston right now in Kerhonkson. I only know this because I am on the phone with a friend down there.

Anyway, if anything I feel that we will be in school tomorrow, because a lot of the computer models are showing there is a lot of warm air about.

This warm air means a less chance of snow. Snow at night, because temperatures do drop below freezing. When the sun comes up though, the temperatures will go above freezing changing things to rain.

The storm will develop off the coast though out tomorrow bringing snow tomorrow night and into Wednesday.

Snow fall totals over night 1 - 3 inches. If the snow doesn't change over tomorrow, maybe an inch or two if we are lucky. Tuesday night into Wednesday... I can't say. Some models are showing barely anything, other models are showing A LOT. I'll call that tomorrow.

What does it sum up to be?

Prediction

Delay --- 40%
Closing --- 30%

Date: Monday, February 15 2010
Prediction: for Tuesday Feb 16, 2010

Greetings!!! I hope everyone enjoyed their three day weekend, and here I am looking to predict the weekend to become a 4 day weekend!!!! So get those PJs on inside out, and jump into bed backwards tonight!

Also, my father would like to apologize to us all for installing the snow shield this year. It seems, that this is the first year he has owned a snow blower, only because that used to be my job, but I digress. Anyway, he bought a snow blower, and because he did, it hasn't really snowed like it should have.

Okay, okay... into the science rather than the jokes right.

Another storm is going to be moving up the coast from the south. There are way to many different computer models out there for this storm meaning that the exact track isn't know as of yet. The one that I trust most is saying that we are going to remain on the northern and western edge of the storm.

What does that mean, simply put not an epic amount of snow, but snow is possible. Estimation for accumulation of snow at this point is 1 - 5 inches of snow.

It should start over night tonight and continue into tomorrow. Temperatures for this one should be just below freezing, so it should stay all snow. Though, if we end up in that dry wedge again, I think I might scream. (Update: Looks like I need to scream)

Update: It's going to snow, and the timing looks good to make things slick, but... we are starting to fall into the dry wedge again. Unless there is a major shift in the storm we aren't going to get much snow. My father's snow shield is stronger than we all imagined!

Leave the alarm clocks on just in case.

Prediction.....

Delay --- 0%
Closing --- 75%

Updated 11:15

Date: Wednesday, February 10 2010
Prediction: for Thursday Feb 11, 2010.

This storm was a giant let down. They were saying that it was going to be epic, and that the snow was going to get heavy at times. The times that snow was supposed to be heavy, it stopped. In fact there was a span for about 2 hours that it didn't snow at all.

Explanation for it? Simple, we ended up in the dry wedge of the storm again. Even though it snowed up 5 inches, think of how much it would have snowed if we didn't end up in that dry wedge?

Every Nor'Easter has different parts to it, and instead of being on the moisture side of the storm, we were right were the cold dry air is pumped into the storm, leaving us with a light powdery, "dusty" type snow.

All in all, it was a nice snow day today, and no one had to kill themselves shoveling.

So, the snow is going to taper off through the night tonight, and the winds are going to pick up. The snow is light enough to blow around and it's possible it could cover the roads. I hate to say it though, I was out driving around and the main roads are just wet.

Verdict?

Delay ---- 35%
Closing --- 0%

See you all tomorrow!

Date: Tuesday, February 9 2010
Prediction: for Wednesday Feb 10, 2010.

It's about time that we got into the path of a Nor'easter. Wait, sorry... let me rethink that... some people don't like the snow.

First, I want to comment on all the people ringing my phone off the hook. Seriously!?!?!?! IN all truth, it actually makes me feel good to know that I have quite the fan base, students and teachers alike. I just don't know if that is a good thing or not.

Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for our area from 5am tomorrow morning will 1am Thursday morning.. (technically Wednesday night). What does this all mean?

Well, The storm is starting to really form off the coast of Virginia. It's a classic Nor'easter set up. The double barrel low pressure systems combining together. One low pressure with a ton of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the other low pressure with cold arctic air.

We might have some early snow showers tonight, as some bands of energy push off the storm. expect the snow to pick up around daybreak, and then increase in intensity late morning, early afternoon.

It is extremely likely that snow could fall at a rate of an inch an hour. This type of snow fall leads to evil driving conditions, but great conditions for a snow day. Snow fall totals, are up in the air, as the storm can change tracks and move further north, meaning MORE snow or more south meaning less snow.


The Prediction

Delay --- 0%
Closing --- 90%


Mrs. Izzo is the grammar correct? ;)